Why Saudi Investment Hasn't Turned Newcastle into Title Contenders

Eddie Howe is not prone to dramatics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing after the weekend's loss to West Ham qualifies as a furious outburst. His side took an early lead but the opposition were ahead by the interval, as well as striking the woodwork and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the break.

“The opening period was particularly irritating,” the coach said. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I think this indicated of where we were at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. Actually, I cannot recall I have since I’ve been manager of Newcastle, therefore I believed the team needed a significant change at the break. That’s why I did those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at half-time and Newcastle did stabilise somewhat in the second half, but never appearing like they might fight back into the game against an opponent that had won only one of their last nine fixtures. Given how packed the centre of the table currently is, with just three points separating the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not left the Magpies stranded but, similarly, they must not end the campaign in 13th.

The Issue of Expectations

The problem partially is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle possess the wealthiest backers in the world. The assumption at the time the Saudi fund bought 80% of the club in recent years was that it would bring a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two owners took over before the advent of FFP rules (while the ongoing charges against City concern whether they breached those regulations after they were in place).

Profit and sustainability regulations limit the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their squads and so in that sense likely might have hindered any Middle Eastern effort to raise the team to the level of Manchester City. But there is no need for the club's spending to have been so restrained as it has been; they might have spent more and stayed inside the threshold – or simply taken a relatively meagre European fine given their big issue is more with the European than the Premier League regulation.

Infrastructure Spending and Financial Rules

Additionally, infrastructure spending is exempted from PSR calculations; the easiest way to raise income to create more financial headroom would be to expand or redevelop the arena. Given the location of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on two sides, practically that probably implies building an entirely new stadium. Rumors circulated in spring of possibly making the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been overcome with a promise to create a new park on the existing ground location – but there has not been any progress on that plan. There has occurred substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it refocuses on local investments; the attitude to Newcastle seems entirely in keeping with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Saga

The Alexander Isak episode was arose from that tension. A bolder leadership might have portrayed his transfer as necessary to release funds for further spending; instead there was a vain effort to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amidst a sense of disappointment even with the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: one win in their initial six fixtures.

Yet it appeared a corner was reached. They had won five in six before Sunday, a streak that included demolitions of Union Saint-Gilloise and a Portuguese club in the European competition. This explains the performance against West Ham was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that Newcastle’s approach is very aggressive, very high-octane; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound effects. Perhaps the strain of domestic, European and cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had got to them. The German forward started all five matches and appeared especially weary.

Reality of Contemporary Soccer

This is the nature of modern the sport. Coaches have to be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unlucky that the forward's injury has meant he is lacking forward choices but, no matter how reasonable the reasons, Sunday’s performance was unacceptable –especially after taking the lead at a stadium primed to criticize its own side.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to secure the Champions League next season, let alone eventually launch an genuine championship bid, they must not be as inconsistent as they have been.